Editor\’s note: In 2009 day quantity credit injection supported the economic growth, the Chinese economy went out of financial crisis\’s mire. But on the other hand, 10 trillion nearly loan deliveries also initiated the market to the inflation and bank to attack make loans and so on a series of question worry. Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee in the fourth quarter at the regular meeting proposed in 2009 that in 2010 must grasp the currency credit growth, the guidance financial institution loans balanced, avoids fluctuating oversized. This regulative technique and old times compared is a new luminescent spot, corresponding had the effect to the loan and even the economical aspects. We invited the expert to carry on the analysis forecast judgment.
In 2010 monetary policy adjustment, the interest on futures and enhances the legal bank reserve against deposits rate possibly not to become the main policy instrument (certainly, this does not remove Central Bank affects market expectation through few in number interest on futures or legal bank reserve against deposits rate adjustment), the direct control will possibly play the major role, namely through to control of the loan scale, realizes the Central Economic Working Conference about grasps currency credit growth the request.
The overall mentioned, by the end of 2009, global economic environment at the beginning of 2009 had fundamental new face: The major economic has stood firmly basically rise, but is affected the crisis small emerging market country, economic growth rate obviously prominent. At the same time, in global scale, the property price dramatic rise and inflation anticipated that starts constantly to strengthen. All these changes, cause the primary problem which our country monetary policy faces, had the change quietly, declines from the sole counter-economy, changes gradually instead declines the aspect which against inflation pays equal attention. Convenes at the end of 2009 in the Central Economic Working Conference, related in 2010 indication of the monetary policy has been reflecting this kind of kind of change, the conference, in continue maintain moderate loose monetary policy in the formulation situation, but also proposed that need management inflation anticipated, pointed out that must while maintaining the monetary policy continuity and stable, strengthens pointed and flexibility, closely tracks the domestic and foreign economic situation change, grasps currency credit growth and other requests. The above indication means that in guaranteeing under stability increase in economics\’s premise, the monetary policy need more considered suppresses the inflation anticipated, to obtain instead declines and between the balance against inflation two.
In 2009 Central Economic Working Conference related monetary policy indication, in fact implied is acting according to the domestic and foreign economic environment change, future monetary policy has carries on trimming\’s possibility. Under this kind of kind of main key, the future monetary policy trend question which the market cared, mainly may sum up in two aspect contents; first, the monetary policy presents the adjustment the time; Second, is the method which the monetary policy adjustment relies on.
Regarding the first question, the related discussion were many. Looking from the worldwide scale, although during the crisis, various countries has adopted extremely loose monetary policy unprecedented identically, but because receives the environment difference which the crisis influence as well as faces, various countries\’ loose policy withdrawal\’s opportunity will actually have very big difference. In the past, the global government (specially is the Asian area government) the expanded public expenditure influence, is attacked the crisis the total demand vigorous growth of small resources country, from this led the economical ultra anticipated recovery, the inflation pressure was increasingly obvious. Taking this into consideration, this kind of country\’s monetary policy started to change in 2009 in the second half of the year, attempts through rising the rest or enhances legal bank reserve against deposits and other methods, suppresses inflation anticipated further worsening; With it relative, Europe and America are been big financial crisis direct impact, before its various departments balance sheet can repair, the total demand grows will receive the big restriction, the business upturn speed meets the relative asthenia. In this case, the European and American Central Bank also maintains in some time the present loose monetary policy situation will be invariable, its withdrawal step will possibly fall behind the vast majority of country.
Such the country speaking of China, the situation possibly happen to was located among the above two kinds of countries. Although at the same time, Chinese economic growth momentum is strong, but the total demand expansion foundation was unreliable, and CPI upward trend is not obvious; But on the other hand, the bank system abundant fluidity was implying many hidden dangers, specially in the real economy lacked in the effective opportunities for investment\’s situation, the large amounts of funds have rushed the capital market and real estate market, and has caused certain asset price bubble, needs to take the measure to guard promptly. From this, our country monetary policy changes the adjustment the opportunity, will be approximately also located among the above two kinds of countries, lags in the resources export model country, but will be before the US and Europe, earliest possibly will appear in 2010 the second quarter.
The second question, is the method which the related monetary policy changes probably to use. According to the general logic, monetary policy from changes the contraction loosely, approximately may use the method is the interest on futures, enhances the legal bank reserve against deposits rate, the exchange rate as well as the loan control, and so on. In the former contraction operation, Central Bank more has used the interest on futures and enhances legal bank reserve against deposits rate these two methods. However, in future domestic and foreign environment, the above two methods\’ validity are quite actually dubious. First, because US dollar low interest rate level in a long time will possibly maintain invariably, raises the renminbi interest rate level, will enlarge the spread to stimulate the foreign capital to flow, further increases bank system\’s fluidity; Next, Our country Banking industry statutory reserve fund rate has been in the high level at present, further promotes the space is limited. Therefore, the author believes that in 2010 monetary policy adjustment, the interest on futures and enhances the legal bank reserve against deposits rate possibly not to become the main policy instrument (certainly, this does not remove Central Bank affects market expectation through few in number interest on futures or legal bank reserve against deposits rate adjustment), the direct control will possibly play the major role, namely through to control of the loan scale, realizes the Central Economic Working Conference about grasps currency credit growth the request.
However, what needs to point out that no doubt may realize through the credit quota control to the currency and credit precise quantity regulation, simultaneously can also some negative influences which avoids the price method (for example interest on futures) institute probably bringing, but quantity regulation itself also has many flaws, should give the full attention. First, real economy regarding call for fund, with its project program implementation progress related, credit quota determination, whether to tally with real economy\’s demand, is a very difficult solution question; Second, in scale control situation, if the bank the limited fund all will go to the state-owned business and large-scale project, the small and medium-sized enterprise financing difficult difficult position possibly becomes even more prominent, this will not favor our country readjustment of the economic structure expansion.
In brief, along with the domestic and foreign change of economic situation, our country 2010 monetary policy has the possibility which adjusts and changes. However, in view of the fact that the present total demand grows the foundation was still unstable, as well as numerous medium and long-term projects which will plan in 2009 must the further financial support, the monetary policy adjustment unable to present the great dynamics the contraction, but more will manifest is one kind of trimming, the moderate loose policy\’s main key will continue to continue. In addition, in 2010, the risk which our country economy faces, besides elevated temperature day by day the inflation anticipated, but is also included the asset price bubble question which expedites childbirth by fluid surplus, needs to come to deal through the contraction fluidity. Regarding this, quantity regulation is the target-oriented method, but whether will make very good progress, but must wait. (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences finance research Bank research director once just)
(Origin: Chinese negotiable securities newspaper)
(This article originates: Chinese negotiable securities newspaper) 
